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Monday, January 6, 2014

NCAA Rose Bowl Cash-In: Florida State vs Auburn

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NCAA Rose Bowl Cash-In:
#1 Florida State Seminoles vs. #2 Auburn Tigers
Line: Florida State -10.5, O.U: 68

The Match-Up:
The top two teams in the country invade Pasadena on Monday night for the highly anticipated 2014 BCS National Championship, better known as the Rose Bowl. This year the match-up features ACC Champion and top ranked Florida State against SEC Champion and #2 ranked Auburn.

Florida State comes in the lone undefeated team in the country. They haven't just beat teams, they have blown them out. Each of their 13 wins has been by 14 or more points including a 45-7 thrashing of Duke in the ACC Conference Championship. They have shown supreme dominance on both sides of the ball all season long. Quarterback Jamies Winston has been deemed the best player in the country, winning just about every major award including the Heisman Trophy. Winston leads the second best scoring offense in the country, averaging 53 points per game. If that isn't enough, FSU also boast the #1 ranked defense in college football allowing just 10.7 points per game.

Auburn has surprised everyone this season and done so is spectacular fashion. They are the Champions of the best division in college football. They have beaten the likes of Alabama, Missouri, Georgia and Texas A&M, two of which is stunning last second fashion. They are led offensively by running back and Heisman finalist Tre Mason. He is as explosive a runner as there is in college football, leading the Tigers to 40.2 points per game. Defensively, they aren't quite as sound, allowing 24 points per game, albeit against one of the toughest schedules in the country.

Trends:
Florida State is 9-0-1 ATS in its past 10 bowl games.
Florida State is 11-2 ATS as favorite of nine or more points.
Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the past five BCS title games.
SEC won and covered all seven BCS title games.
Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its past four bowl games.
Auburn is 10-0 in their past ten SU & ATS.
Auburn is 2-0 SU & ATS as 10+ point underdogs this season.

The Verdict:
The #2 team, an SEC team, mind you, is getting 10.5 points in a Championship game against a team that really has yet to face a team as strong (in theory) as the top half of the SEC. Sounds a little crazy, right? Auburn has a flare for the dramatic, beating both Alabama and Texas A&M on the final play of their games. They were 10+ point dogs in both of those contests and walked away winners. The defense is really the only concern if you are an Auburn fan. They has survived by the bend but don't break mentality to this point, but can that withstand the best QB and #2 ranked offense in the county? They have beaten Johnny Manziel, AJ McCarron and Aaron Murray already this season. Stands to reason, they should be very competitive in this one as well. Take the points to the bank!

PICK: AUBURN +10.5

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