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Thursday, January 10, 2013

NFL Divisional Round Cash-In

Wild on Sports
We're making it easy for you this weekend. These are the latest trends the sides you should be taking this weekend. Good luck everyone!
Week Record: 1-3

Denver Broncos (-9.5) vs. Baltimore Ravens O/U: 46.5 Saturday - 4:30pm
DENVER is 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points this season.
DENVER is 11-4 ATS this season.
DENVER is 19-6 ATS after a bye week since 1992.
DENVER is 9-2 ATS in games played on a grass field this season.
DENVER is 10-1 ATS as a favorite this season.
Pick: DENVER -9.5    LOSS


San Francisco 49ers (-3) vs. Green Bay Packers O/U: 45 Saturday - 8:30pm
GREEN BAY is 34-20 ATS in the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 17-8 ATS in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 34-20 ATS in the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 13-3 SU (12-3-1 ATS) past 16 vs. 49ers
GREEN BAY is (6-1 SU, 6-0-1 ATS) vs. SEATTLE since 1980
GREEN BAY is 12-3-1 ATS past 16 games as underdog
Pick: Green Bay +3  LOSS


Atlanta Falcons (-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks O/U: 46 Sunday - 1:00pm
UNDER is 6-1 past 7 Atlanta games
UNDER is 9-2 past 11 Falcon games when favored
Pick: UNDER 46  LOSS


New England Patriots (-9) vs. Houston Texans O/U: 47.5 Sunday - 4:30pm

NEW ENGLAND is 17-8 ATS against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS off a win against a division rival over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
ALL FOUR career meetings played OVER total
Pick: New England -9  WIN

Wednesday, January 9, 2013

NFL Fanduel Divisional Round Playoff Bargains & Studs

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NFL Fanduel:  Divisional Round Playoffs
The playoffs are here and Fanduel is still going strong! Once again we take a look at the players you should have in your line-up this weekend, one stud, one bargain. Goof luck everyone!

QB - Tom Brady  vs. Houston Texans  $9,700
While getting the label of highest priced player this week he also has the potential for most points. Brady and the Patriots lit up the Texans a few weeks ago in New England and while it is likely to be a closer affair this time around, there will be plenty of points scored. The opportunity exists for less of a need for a running game if the score stays close. 300/3/0 should be the expectation in this one.
QB - Colin Kaepernick  vs. Green Bay Packers  $7,900
One of the cheaper options at QB this week and is going up against a Green Bay defense that is vulnerable through the air. Kaepernick is a risk reward type play compared to the other higher priced QB's but that is the risk you run with any bargain pick. Should be somewhere around 265/2/1
RB - Marshawn Lynch  vs. Atlanta Falcons  $8,400
Lynch got a little banged up in the second half of last weekend's game against the Redskins but returned in the 4th to help lead the team to victory. It is playoff time so injuries are often pushed aside as players tough it out for a chance at playoff glory. The Seahawks are going to need him to chew up the clock again this week if they hope to keep the high flying Falcon's offense off the field. Expect a line of 110/1 for Lynch this week.
RB - DuJaun Harris  vs.  San Francisco Giants  $5,500
Bit of a sleeper pick here. Harris has gotten the bulk of the carries for Green Bay in recent weeks. While you shouldn't expect him to put up jaw dropping rushing totals, his ability to catch balls out of the back-field and touches in the red-zone should make him worth of a low priced flyer this week. Line: 50yd rush, 5/25 catch, 1 TD
WR - Wes Welker  vs. Houston Texans  $7,800
Brady to Welker, Brady to Welker and more Brady to Welker this week. If you are going with one you should probably have the other. This is a combo that rarely disappoints. Expect 9/120/1
WR - Tory Smith  vs.  Denver Broncos  $5,200
Another low price, high reward pick with Smith. That seems to be the name of the game with him more so than any other player this season. Some games you get 5/80/1, others you get 2/20/0. Here's to hoping its that first option.
TE - Tony Gonzalez  vs.  Seattle Seahawks  $5,600
Can you believe that Tony Gonzalez has never won a playoff game in his long NFL career? Well, many believe this to be his last season, despite putting up terrific numbers once again. Really can't imagine his career ending without a win. He will need to be the focal point in the Falcon's offensive attach if they are going to be successful against a stingy pass defense. Expect 5/85/1.
TE - Dennis Pita  vs.  Denver Broncos  $5,400
As good as the Broncos defense is, no team has given up more fantasy points to TE's this season. Pita had 125 yards and 2 TD's against the Broncos in a late season loss. Those kind of numbers might be beyond expectation this week but a line of 4/80/1 isn't out of the question.
K - Stephen Gostkowski  vs. Houston Texan  $5,100
January weather in New England can be tricky. In week 17 against Miami the Patriots had to pass up a number of field goal opportunities in the 40-50 yard range. In good conditions Gostkowski is as good as any around. Check the weather report before making your pick here.
DEF - Atlanta Falcons vs. Seattle Seahawks  $5,100
No match-up really sticks out at this point. Possibly Denver vs Baltimore? Not sold here. We are banking on a couple of rookie mistakes dooming Russel Wilson and the Seahawks. Pick a team out of a hat here.

It's Back! NHL Season Saved with New CBA

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It's Back! NHL Season Saved with New CBA

The lockout is over! The lockout is over! After 113 days and well over 500 games cancelled the NHL and NHLPA have finally come to an agreement on a new CBA that will allow for hockey to be played in 2013. That's right puck fans, Hockey is back!

Forgive our enthusiasm. We are among the shrinking number of hockey die-hards who live for nothing else but a night full of hard hitting action. The highlights of the agreement are as follows:
  • 2013-14 Salary Cap set at $64.3 million with $44 million floor (minimum) -- Owners proposed $60
  • Subsequent seasons will be prorated portion of the previously agreed-upon $70.2-million limit. 
  • Teams will be permitted to buy out two players' contracts before the 2013-14 season without that money being counted against their salary cap.
  • 50-50 split of hockey-related revenue
  • Seven year contract limit for new contracts
  • Limit of eight years on contract extensions
  • Maximum 50% salary variance over the course of a contract
  • Mandatory acceptance of arbitration awards under US$3.5 million
  • No realignment
  • Amnesty period to buy out contracts that do not fit under the salary cap
Clearly some middle ground was met on most issues. Still, you have to wonder why this couldn't have been resolved a few months ago that would have saved most of or the full season. Regardless, hockey is back! Enjoy!

BBWAA Says No...to everyone

Wild on Sports
BBWAA Says "No"... to everyone

Today was decision day:  the day baseball enthusiasts were looking forward to for over a month as the day our Baseball Hall of Fame questions would be answered. Would steroid guys get in? Proven guys like Barry Bonds and Rodger Clemens -- guys that had Hall of Fame worthy careers both before and after the suspected steroid use. What about guys who were believed to be clean? Guys like Curt Shilling, Craig Biggio, Fred McGriff among others.

The answer to all? A resounding "NO."

It was just the 8th time in the history of MLB Hall of Fame voting that there were no inductees. The last time this occurred was 1996. With so much whishy-washy-ness and conflict between the two schools of thought (baseball purists vs. best players period) the votes simply got split up. You could vote for up to 10. Most voted for 5-6. The results can be seen at the bottom of the page.

Craig Biggio and Jack Morris came the closest to getting in appearing on 68.2% and 67.7% of the needed 75% to get in. Biggio in his first year, Morris in his 14th. Biggio is one of the few with little question about his integrity as it pertains to steroid use. He may be one of few who's impact was not effected by the steroid/anti-steroid vote. Morris now has just one year remaining on the ballot. He was widely considered a favorite to get in this year.

So what do we make of this vote? It really is a sad day for baseball. One of the great days in the sports is election day in Cooperstown. All the living past inductees are there to welcome their new brothern. It is really a symbol of what is good in the game. So why no votes?

Perhaps the answer lies in those responsible for voting. The voting panel consists as members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America with 10 consecutive years of service time. There are approximately 580 ballots that come in for a given year.  Simply put, that is far too many. The more voters you have, the harder it is to get a consensus, or even get to the 75% needed.  Realistically, that number needs to be cut down around 300. With that said, it would be very difficult to come up with some type of system towards narrowing it down. Even if some sort of system could be created, there would be so much backlash that the BBWAA would be hard pressed to pass such regulation. So in short: will it happen? No.

We will leave answers to these questions to time and those far more intelligent on the matter than this sports writer. One thing you may see is former teams or affiliated fan clubs doing some campaigning for "their guy." Perhaps, on a much smaller scale similar to a political campaign.

Where this all really gets interesting is in 2014. Names such as Maddux, Glavine, Thomas and other potentially worthy candidates are added to this pool. Maddux and Glavine seem like locks but with just 10 selections and potentially double digit worthy candidates the votes may once again be split. Will Jack Morris get in on his last ballot? Will people lessen their stance on guys like Bonds or Clemens or even a guy like Curt Schilling who has HOF credentials but may not be deemed worthy of "first ballot status."

Only time will tell. This debate is far from over and certainly one to keep an eye on in the coming year.



Yellow = Returning to Ballot in 2014
Pink = No Longer Eligible in 2014

 Table Courtesy of Wikipedia:
Player Votes Percent
Craig Biggio 388 68.2%
Jack Morris 385 67.7%
Jeff Bagwell 339 59.6%
Mike Piazza 329 57.8%
Tim Raines 297 52.2%
Lee Smith 272 47.8%
Curt Schilling 221 38.8%
Roger Clemens 214 37.6%
Barry Bonds 206 36.2%
Edgar Martínez 204 35.9%
Alan Trammell 191 33.6%
Larry Walker 123 21.6%
Fred McGriff 118 20.7%
Dale Murphy 106 18.6%
Mark McGwire 96 16.9%
Don Mattingly 75 13.2%
Sammy Sosa 71 12.5%
Rafael Palmeiro 50 8.8%
Bernie Williams* 19 3.3%
Kenny Lofton* 18 3.2%
Sandy Alomar Jr.* 16 2.8%
Julio Franco* 6 1.1%
David Wells* 5 0.9%
Steve Finley* 4 0.7%
Shawn Green* 2 0.4%
Aaron Sele* 1 0.2%
Jeff Cirillo* 0 0.0%
Royce Clayton* 0 0.0%
Jeff Conine* 0 0.0%
Roberto Hernández* 0 0.0%
Ryan Klesko* 0 0.0%
José Mesa* 0 0.0%
Reggie Sanders* 0 0.0%
Mike Stanton* 0 0.0%
Todd Walker* 0 0.0%
Rondell White* 0 0.0%
Woody Williams* 0 0.0%

Monday, January 7, 2013

NFL Wild Card Fanduel Weekend In Review

Wild on Sports
A look back at the week that was Wild Card Weekend NFL Fanduel

Click here to see the pick: Wild Card Fanduel

QB - Aaron Rodgers  $9,600  vs. Minnesota    16.6
274/1/0 Expected more out of Rodgers from a TD stand point but the game was so far out of hand with rushing and defense that Rodgers could sit back, make the throws when he needed to and guide the team to victory.
QB - Andy Dalton  $7,400  vs. Houston              5.58
127/0/1  Very rough outing for Dalton. The drops hurt his cause but his inaccuracy hurt even worse. Very disappointing.
WR - AJ Green  $7,500  vs. Houston                   10.5
 5/80 After being held without a catch in the first half, he was Dalton's go to guy after adjustment in the 2nd half. Had he been targeted earlier it could have been a decent play but for the money you could have doen better else where.
WR - Greg Jennings  $6,900  vs. Minnesota        8.1
4/61 See Rodgers. Defense+Running Game = tough games for QB's/Wr's
RB - Adrian Peterson  $9,600  vs. Green Bay    11.2
99/0, 1/8 After rushing for 210 and 199 in two games against Green Bay earlier in the season, AP was held to just 99 on Saturday. The lack of a passing game to keep the defense honest hurt his cause. If you spent big on Peterson you put yourself in a bit of a hole this week.
RB - Vic Ballard $6,100  vs. Baltimore                 9.9
91/0, 1/3 Respectable rushing total but several key drops in the passing game ruined what could have been a much more exciting game both in real life and in fantasy.
TE - Jermaine Gresham  $5,300  vs. Houston      1.7
2/7 Drop culprit #1 for Dalton this week.
K - Shayne Graham  $5,500  vs. Cincinnati          14.0
4 FG'S Very solid game for Graham
DEF - Indianapolis Colts  $5,500  vs. Baltimore   5
Not the game we were expecting from the Indy defense. Much better options out there.


Aside from Graham and maybe Rodgers a down week this week. Be sure to check back with us on Thursday as we look to rebound with a strong group for the Divisional Round games.

NCAA BCS Championship Cash-In

Wild on Sports
 
Its hard to believe the end of the college football season is here already here, but here we are with the National Championship pick. Good luck everyone!

BSC National Championship Game
Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1, 6-7 ATS)
vs. 
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0, 7-5 ATS)
Line: Alabama -10, O/U 40

Overview:
Alabama is averaging 38.5 points per game while allowing 10.7. Notre Dame is averaging 26.8 while allowing 10.3. The value here is determining the strength of the Irish defense against an SEC opponent. Many believe that the SEC is far and away the best conference and both history and statistics agree as SEC teams have won and covered the spread in six consecutive BCS National Championship Games. The fact that the SEC has been in the title game that many times consecutively is impressive in its own right, let alone won and cover. The Irish  have quality wins over Stanford, Oklahoma and USC. The Crimson Tide have quality wins over LSU and Georgia. Their only common opponent was Michigan -- ND 13-6, AL 41-14
Trends:
Alabama went 2-5 ATS vs. bowl teams this season.
Notre Dame went 5-4 ATS vs. bowl teams this season.
Alabama went 1-5 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.
Brian Kelly is 3-2 ATS in bowl games, 1-1 ATS at Notre Dame.
Nick Saban is 7-6 ATS in bowl games, 4-1 ATS at Alabama.
Notre Dame is 2-6 ATS in its last eight bowls.
Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games
Five of Alabama’s last six bowl games have gone OVER the total.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Notre Dame's last 11 games

Rational:
The two defenses in this game should keep it relatively low scoring which really favors a team that is a double digit underdog. The line started at 7, got as high as 10/10.5 and with an hour till game time is either 9.5 or 10 depending on where you play. Most experts are staying away from the spread and betting the under. We are going away from the point total trend and taking the Fighting Irish to keep it close. Should be within a touchdown either way.

PICK: 
NOTRE DAME +10/+9.5

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