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Saturday, December 7, 2013

NCAA Cash-In: ACC Championship

Wild on Sports
NCAA Cash-In: ACC Championship
Duke Blue Devils at Florida State Seminoles
Line: Florida St. -29, O/U: 64

The Match-Up
David faces Goliath this week as the #1 Florida State Seminoles host the surprising Duke Blue Devils. The big news this week for the undefeated Seminoles was not related to anything that will happen in Saturday nights game but instead off the field where Heisman hopeful QB Jameis Winston will not be charged in a sexual assault case. Now that is out of the way they will look to keep their drivers seat to the National Title game nice and cozy against a team they know little about.

Duke comes into the game at 10-2, winners of 8 straight and a perfect 5-0 on the road. They have quality wins on the road at Virginia Tech and home against then ranked Miami. When you think Duke you don't generally think football. The program was the ACC doormat for years but have seen a major resurgence this season and have every right to be in this game.

The Seminoles have beaten Duke 15 straight meetings, covering the last five meetings. 
Florida St. won 48-7 at home last year vs Duke as 27-point favorites.
Duke is 6-0 ATS in its last six games on grass
Florida State is 11-2-1 ATS in its last 14 neutral-site games
The OVER is 12-5-1 in Duke’s last 18 conference games
The OVER is 7-1 in FSU’s last eight conference games.

The Verdict:
Florida St. has every reason to be the overwhelming favorite in this one. They have won handily in each game this season and look like the clear favorite to win the National Championship. That said, there have been a lot of distractions in Florida this week. The Jameis Winston saga may be over from a legal standpoint but there is still a lot of speculation around him and on top of that he has Heisman voters to try and lock up. It would not surprise me to see him squeeze the ball just a little tighter in the first half allowing the game to stay close. Four plus touchdowns is a huge number. I think they win, just not in as grant a fashion as Vegas eludes to.



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