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Saturday, November 23, 2013

NFL Week 12 Cash-In: Carolina at Miami

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NFL Week 12 Cash-In
Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins
Line: Carolina -5, O/U: 41.5

The Match-Up

The Carolina Panthers come into the game off of arguably their biggest win of the season Monday night against New England. The win was not without controversy. A flag for alleged pass interference was thrown but later picked up. It would have give New England the ball on the one yard line with a chance to win. Instead it was the Panthers walking away with victory. Carolina is arguably the hottest team in football with wins and covers in six straight. This week they hit the road to face the 5-5 Dolphins with a chance to firmly cement their playoff picture.

The Miami Dolphins come into the game off a 20-16 upset victory as 3-point dogs last week against San Diego. Even with the win, the Dolphins still have their share of problems. Ryan Tannehill has been sacked more than any QB in the NFL this season. Even in a win Tannehill found himself sacked four times by Chargers defenders. His offensive line is still without its two best players and will be for the remainder of the season. Going up against one of the better pass rushing lines in the league this week there will likely be more of the same. Fortunately for the Dolphins they will likely not be seeing Charles Johnson who suffered a knee injury last week.

Trends:

The Dolphins are 6-2-1 ATS in their past nine home games
Carolina is on a 6-0 ATS run
Panthers are 9-3 ATS past 12 road games

The Verdict:

Miami has a knack for eking out close wins and does have quality wins this season over Indy, Cincinnati and San Diego. That said, if the Patriots couldn't get it done against the Carolina defense, it is unlikely Miami will be able to. Tannehill's record pace sack total will surely take another jump up this week. Cam Newton looks as good as he has since his rookie season. We like Carolina by at least a touchdown in this one.

PICK: CAROLINA -5

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