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Sunday, November 17, 2013

NFL Week 11 Cash-In: San Diego vs. Miami

Wild on Sports
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NFL Week 1 Cash-In
San Diego Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
Line: San Diego -2.5, O/U: 45

The Match-Up

The 4-5 San Diego Chargers head to Miami to take on the 4-5 Dolphins. The Chargers come into the game off a pair of close losses to good teams. First it was the re-coming out party of RGIII, then it was a date with Peyton and the juggernaut Broncos. They were right there in both games which should be something they can use as a confidence boost going up against a team this week that is far from either of those two. Phillip Rivers is playing well this season and has a new favorite target on the outside in Keenan Allen. Look for those two to hook up early and often again today.

The Miami Dolphins are a mess right now. There is so much going on off the field and in that locker room that is taking away from the performance on the field. The offensive line is in shambles. Ryan Tannehill spends more time on his back than...well, I'll let you figure that one out. Defensively they are still a fairly formidable group. Cameron Wake is as good a defensive end as you will find in the league. The problem for Dolphins fans in recent weeks has been his usage. He is only been on the field for about 2/3 of the snaps on defense since coming back from injury. That leads me to believe that he is not 100% healthy. That defense is a whole different animal when Wake is healthy and flying off the end.

Trends:

The Chargers are 2-0 ATS and SU in the last two meetings with Miami.
Miami is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games after starting the season 3-0 SU and ATS.

The Verdict

The only way the Dolphins keep this close is if they find a way to protect Ryan Tannehill. They have not done that most of the season and it is a wonder that the kid is even able to stay in games as much as he is getting hit. The Chargers are going to score some points. Tannehill and company are going to be playing from behind early. At just 2.5 this line seems like a no brainer. Lay the points.

PICK: SAN DIEGO -2.5

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