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Sunday, November 17, 2013

NFL Week 11 Cash-In: New Orleans vs. San Francisco

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NFL Week 11 Cash-In
New Orleans Saints vs. San Francisco 49ers
Line: New Orleans -3.5, O/U: 50.5

The Match-Up

Two of the best teams in the NFL will battle it out Sunday after noon in New Orleans as the 7-2 Saints play host to San Francisco and the 6-3 49ers. The Saints are one of the best teams in football at home. They are 5-0 at the Superdome this season and score points in bunches on the turf. Drew Brees will have a full complement of players back for the first time in weeks as Marques Colston and Mark Ingram both appear to be back and close to 100%. While most of the attention is on the offensive side of the ball, the Saints defense has made leaps and bounds of improvement this season under new d-coordinator Rob Ryan. The team is allowing just 18.1 points per game and more importantly are causing turnover and disrupting quarterbacks.

The San Francisco 49ers will be looking to rebound this week after a tough 10-9 loss last week to Carolina. Aldon Smith is back and the 49ers defense looks a stingy as ever. They problem as of late has been on the offensive side of the ball. Colin Kaepernick has been a shell of the player that took the league by storm this time last season. He clearly misses his star wideout Michael Crabtree who will miss this game and probably at least one other as he recovers from a broken leg. In the mean time they are going to need Frank Gore to pound the ball on the group to help control the ball and the clock, keeping Drew Brees off the field.

Trends:

The 49ers have beaten the Saints in each of the past two seasons.
The 49ers have covered the spread in 10 of their last 14 games after a loss.
The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 11.

The Verdict:

The 49ers inconsistencies on offense are troublesome in a game in which they are probably going to need to score 30 points to have a chance to win. The Saints are a different team at home. If they are not the greatest show on turf they are a close second. The combination of Drew Brees and an improved defense could spell trouble for the 49ers. Lay the points.

PICK: NEW ORLEANS -3.5

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