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Saturday, November 23, 2013

NCAA Week 12 Cash-In: New England vs. Denver

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NFL Week 12 Cash-In
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos
Line: Denver -2.5, O/U: 54

The Match-Up

The 9-1 Denver Broncos head to New England on Sunday night to take on the 7-3 New England Patriots in the latest Manning-Brady Bowl. Peyton has had the upper hand as of late but Brady and Belichick maintain the edge overall. For the Broncos Wes Welker the return to New England will be his first since leaving the Pats for Denver this past off-season. The exact details of the split are unclear as each side has a bit of a different story. Either way it will be an emotional return as both Welker and the fans will be jacked up for this one. 

Denver comes into the game winners of three straight after their lone hiccup against Indy. They continue to dominate on offense with a league best 39.8 points per game. They are a bit vulnerable on defense however giving up 25.5 points per game. They are particularly weak in the passing game. Tony Romo and Andrew Luck both carved up their secondary. As good as both of those QB's are, they are no Tom Brady. With a healthy compliment of weapons at his disposal for the first time this season, Brady will move the ball and the Patriots will score points. The question is whether they will be able to keep up to the same clip that Manning and the Broncos will but up.

The Patriots are coming off a tough loss to Carolina Monday night. They will be extremely motivated after feeling ripped off with the closing of last week's game. They are going in with a similar situation to Denver -- offense can score points, but the defense is so beat up that good teams will move the ball on them.

Trends:

Broncos 1-4 SU & ATS past five vs Patriots
Patriots 5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS at home in 2013

The Verdict:

This one is going to be a shootout, there is no doubt about that. I am a little surprised to see this O/U at just 54. With no clear favorite at this point the smart play here is the over. The Patriots secondary will be without Alfanso Denard and top CB Aquib Talib will be a game time decision and if he does play will not be at 100%. I wouldn't be surprised to see this one break 60.

PICK: OVER 54

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