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Sunday, October 20, 2013

NFL Week 7 Cash-In: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

Wild on Sports
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NFL Week 7 Cash-In:

Each week we give you our top three NFL picks against the spread. First on the agenda for week 7:

New England Patriots @ New York Jets
NE -4, O/U: 43.5

The Patriots are devastated by injury on both sides of the ball. Because of that, a line that would typically be north of a touchdown instead is right around a field goal at most books. When you get a match-up like like this between two hated rivals you can usually throw records out the door as both team are likely to show up to play. What you can look at however are some intangibles.

The key to this game for both teams is going to be Rob Gronkowski. Wait, what? Just hear me out...
The Patriots are battered by injuries and have an offense that has been a far cry from your typical Belichick-Brady high octane fashion. A receiving core comprised primarily of rookies will get a major shot in the arm from the return of arguably the most dangerous red-zone targets in football in Rob Gronkowski. Brady has his security blanket back and finally a guy who can actually catch a pass when it hits him in the hands. That is going to go a long way for the confidence of that offense.

OK, so clearly we can see how that benefits New England, but how does it benefit the Jets? Simple - confirm the doubt in Gronk's head. The Gronkowski camp has continued to push back his return date our of concern of re-injuring his arm and/or back. If you are the Jets you hit him and hit him hard. Make sure that James Andrews approval of health is rock solid. If he feels any pain he is going to pull himself from the game. You get Gronkowski out and all of a sudden the Patriots are back to square one and Brady is stuck with inexperienced receivers that he doesn't trust.

Verdict: As banged up as New England is we believe that Belichick and Brady are far grater than anything the Jets have going for them. This has the potential to be a huge statement game for the Pats. If the offense is rolling expect them to go for the kill. Wouldn't be surprised to see Brady hang 30 on what many consider to be a very good Jets defense just to prove a point.

PICK: New England -4

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