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Monday, September 16, 2013

NFL Monday Night Cash-In: Bengals vs. Steelers

Wild on Sports
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NFL Monday Night Cash-In:
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cincinnati Bengals
(Cincinnati -6.5, O/U: 41)

Overview:
Monday Night Football brings us an AFC North battle between the Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers. Both teams come into the game 0-1, Cincinnati following a tough one point loss to the Chicago Bears after controlling the play for the majority of the game  - Pittsburgh following a costly loss (in more ways than just the standings) to the Tennessee Titans.

These two teams traditionally play each other pretty tough with the Steelers having won five of the past six match-ups both straight up and ATS. This time around the Steelers come in as the walking wounded having lost two of their top three runningbacks and top offensive linemen/starting center Mike Pouncey. Ben Rothlessburger was sacked a whopping five times last week against a Titans team that lacks a defensive tackle anywhere near the caliber of Geno Atkins. I smell trouble for the Pittsburgh offense in this one.

Cincinnati was a popular pick going into the season as both AFC North Champion and darkhorse Super Bowl contender. Despite losing week 1 they certainly showed flashing on both sides of the ball to lead you to believe that it could very well be the case. In many respects this is a make or break year for Andy Dalton. He is now in his third season with AJ Green who is emerging as one of, if not the best wide receiver in the league. If defenses focus on Green, Dalton has two viable options at tight end as weapons as well. The Steelers defense was respectable in week one for the majority of the game but the Titans lack a QB the caliber of Andy Dalton and certainly lack any type of weapon resembling AJ Green.

Trends:
Pittsburgh is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati's last 10 games

Trends aside, all signs point towards the Bengals in this one.

Pick: CINCINNATI -6.5

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