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Monday, January 7, 2013

NCAA BCS Championship Cash-In

Wild on Sports
 
Its hard to believe the end of the college football season is here already here, but here we are with the National Championship pick. Good luck everyone!

BSC National Championship Game
Alabama Crimson Tide (12-1, 6-7 ATS)
vs. 
Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-0, 7-5 ATS)
Line: Alabama -10, O/U 40

Overview:
Alabama is averaging 38.5 points per game while allowing 10.7. Notre Dame is averaging 26.8 while allowing 10.3. The value here is determining the strength of the Irish defense against an SEC opponent. Many believe that the SEC is far and away the best conference and both history and statistics agree as SEC teams have won and covered the spread in six consecutive BCS National Championship Games. The fact that the SEC has been in the title game that many times consecutively is impressive in its own right, let alone won and cover. The Irish  have quality wins over Stanford, Oklahoma and USC. The Crimson Tide have quality wins over LSU and Georgia. Their only common opponent was Michigan -- ND 13-6, AL 41-14
Trends:
Alabama went 2-5 ATS vs. bowl teams this season.
Notre Dame went 5-4 ATS vs. bowl teams this season.
Alabama went 1-5 ATS vs. teams with a winning record this season.
Brian Kelly is 3-2 ATS in bowl games, 1-1 ATS at Notre Dame.
Nick Saban is 7-6 ATS in bowl games, 4-1 ATS at Alabama.
Notre Dame is 2-6 ATS in its last eight bowls.
Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games
Five of Alabama’s last six bowl games have gone OVER the total.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Notre Dame's last 11 games

Rational:
The two defenses in this game should keep it relatively low scoring which really favors a team that is a double digit underdog. The line started at 7, got as high as 10/10.5 and with an hour till game time is either 9.5 or 10 depending on where you play. Most experts are staying away from the spread and betting the under. We are going away from the point total trend and taking the Fighting Irish to keep it close. Should be within a touchdown either way.

PICK: 
NOTRE DAME +10/+9.5

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