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NFL and NCAA Cash-In

Football season is finally here! Join us each week for our weekly NFL and NCAA cash-in -- giving you the best picks each week to help put a little extra green in that wallet.

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Saturday, December 29, 2012

NCAA Saturday Cash-In: Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl

 
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
TCU (7-5, 4-5 Big 12, 5-7 ATS) vs.  
MICHIGAN STATE (6-6, 3-5 Big Ten, 4-8 ATS)
Line: TCU -1.5, O/U 40.5

A battle of two under performing offenses and two pretty good defenses in this one. TCU lost star QB 
Casey Pachall after the fourth game of the season when he withdrew from school and entered rehab following a DWI. Since then the Horned Frogs have struggled to score points (29.3ppg - 8th/10 in conference). Fortunately, their defense has kept them in a lot of games (23.1ppg - 2nd/10 in conference). 7 of their 12 games, including the past 3 have gone under. Michigan St. averaged 20.3ppg while allowing 16.3. 9 of their 12 games went under. All signs point to a low scoring affair here.
PICK: UNDER 40.5

NCAA Saturday Cash-In: Alamo Bowl

Alamo Bowl
Texas (8-4, 5-7 ATS) vs. Oregon State (9-3, 8-4 ATS)
Line: Oregon St -3, O/U: 57
David Ash is banged up and may not play, if he does he won't be at 100%. Chase McCoy has been suspended and sent home. Who will play QB for Texas? At this point it may not matter. The line opened at Oregon St. -1 and has moved to -3/-3.5. I would be suprised if it didn't jump a bit more as the QB news becomes more of a concern. Easy pick here. Play with confidence.
Pick: OREGON ST. -3 

NCAA Saturday Cash-In: Fight Hunger Bowl

Fight Hunger Bowl
Navy Midshipmen (8-4 SU, 4-8 ATS) vs.
Arizona State Sun Devils (7-5 SU, 7-5) ATS
Line: AZST -13, O/U 54.5

Interesting stat: Military teams are 25-11 ATS in bowl games dating back to 1980. That stat just took a hit as Air Force lost badly to Rice today but an interesting note and one that helps our case. Arizona St is winless in bowl games since 2005. The Sun Devils score 36.4 ppg while allow 24.0. The Midshipmen score 24.8, giving up 22.7. The Midshipmen are 11-5 ATS against a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last ten bowl games. The Sun Devils are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in December and 0-4 ATS in the last four bowl games.We won't wow you with too much detail here. Fact of the matter is while the Sun Devils will likely win the game the line is just too big.
PICK: NAVY +13

NCAA Saturday Cash-In: New Era Pinstripe Bowl

 
 New Era Pinstripe Bowl
West Virginia Mountaineers (7-5, 5-7 ATS) vs.
Syracuse Orange (7-5, 6-5-1 ATS)
 Line: WV -4, O/U 68.5

Two high powered offenses led by NFL bound high profile QB's highlight this one. This used to be one of the bigger rivalries in college football before West Virginia left the Big East for the Big 12. They have still met as recently as last season with Syracuse posting the 49-23 victory at home.  The Mountaineers got off to an impressive 5-0 start to the season, climbing as high as No. 5 in the country. QB Geno Smith was the leading contender for the Heisman Trophy at the time. A horrible in conference mid-season run saw WV lose 4 in a row and fall off of everyone's radar. The Mountaineers average 41.6 ppg while giving up 38.1.  On the other side of the ball Syracuse comes in having won five of its last six games; their only lose to Big East champion Louisville during that stretch. The Orange average 29.3ppg, giving up 25.7.

The interesting element at play here is the weather. The points opened at 74 and has fallen all the way to 68.5. The snow is falling today in NYC making for interesting playing conditions. The early money was for this game to go way over as both offenses can sling it around. With the weather as it is mistakes will be made allowing for quick points. It may be worth waiting in out until closer to game time to see where the line goes. As it stands right now...
PICK: OVER 68.5

Friday, December 28, 2012

NCAA Friday Cash-In

After an exciting 2-0 Thursday night we are back at it again for a pair of Friday games. We are 3-1 on the week and riding some momentum and good fortune to bring you a couple of winners to close out the work week. Good luck everyone! Play with confidence!

Russell Athletic Bowl 
Rutgers (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs. 
Virginia Tech (6-6 SU, 4-8 ATS)
Line: VT -1 O/U: 42
After getting off to a great start to the season, Rutgers has stumbled as of late losing 3 of their last 5 including their last 2, knocking them out of BCS Bowl contention. The Scarlet Knights boast the 6th best defense in the nation allowing just 14.3 points per game. On the other side of the ball, Virginia Tech comes in off of a disappointing season at just 6-6. They are however coming in on a strong note having won their final two regular season games, albeit failing to cover in both games. VT scores 26.1ppg while allowing 23.9. Neither team as been very good against the spread this season, leaving you trend bettors with a lot to be desired. Head to head the Scarlet Knights are 2-5 against the spread in their last seven games against the Hokies. Overall, VT has won 11 in a row against Rutgers. The games have gone under the total points in four of their last five games overall. 

Given all of this information there are really two plays you could go with. Rutgers was a BSC hopeful just a few weeks ago. They are going up against a team that barley made a bowl game. Given the strength of the defenses a case could be made for the under in this one as well. We are going with what we feel will be the safer choice...
PICK: RUTGERS +1


 
 Meineke Car Care Bowl
Minnesota Golden Gophers (6-6 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs. 
Texas Tech Red Raiders (7-5 SU, 6-6 ATS)
Line: TxTec -13, O/U: 54.5
Coming of a 3-9 season in 2011, Minnesota started 4-0 this season before losing six of its last eight games and backed into the post season. On the other side of the ball, Texas Tech comes into the game having failed to cover in each of their final five games of the season, allowing an average of 42.6 points per game in that span. The Golden Gophers score 21.3 points per game while allowing 23.9. The Red Raiders score 37.8 while allowing 31.8. Minnesota was 2nd to last in a division that had a down year across the board. They have a decent defense but really struggle to put points up on the board. Texas Tech can score with the best of them but have a ho-hum defense. Most on the money has come in on Tech moving this line up to 13. We agree with the betting public.
PICK: TEXAS TECH -13

Thursday, December 27, 2012

*Bonus* NCAA Thursday Night Cash-In

Baylor Bears (7-5 SU, 8-4 ATS) 
vs. 
No. 17 UCLA Bruins (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) 
UCLA -3 O/U 82.5

82.5 is a TON of points. This game does feature two of the most prolific offerses in the league and one of the worst defenses. What has us leaning towards the under is the UCLA defense. Playing a tough schedule UCLA allowed  25.9 points per game. As good as the Baylor offense is they will need to score 35+ for this game to go over. I just don't see it. Somebody is going to make a mistake. Somebody is going to make a stop on defense. This is going to be an excellent and very entertaining game but a 34-28 type game, not 45-38.
Pick: UNDER 82.5  WIN

NCAA Thursday Night Cash-In


Cincinnati Bearcats (9-3, 8-4 ATS) -9.5 vs. Duke Blue Devils (6-6, 6-6 ATS)

Duke is playing in a bowl game for the first time in 18 years and has not won a bowl game since 1961. Cincinnati has made bowl appearances in 5 of the last 6 years.  Cincinnati averaged 31.0 points per game while giving up 17.2. Duke averaged 31.0 while giving up 35.0. Duke comes into the game on a 4 game losing streak.  Cincinnati has won 4 of their last 5. Duke went 2-6 ATS as an underdog this season. Cincinnati is 17-3 straight-up and 12-7-1 ATS in its last 20 games as a favorite.

Based on all of this, signs point to Cincinnati as a big favorite.  The line opened as high as -11 on some sites but the money has been coming in heavy for Duke since Bearcat's coach Butch Jones left for Tennessee. I don't think the coach is going to matter in this one. If you can get them in single digits you should feel very comfortable.
Pick: Cincinnati -9.5  WIN

Fanduel NFL Week 17 Players to Start


This is it! Your last chance to cash-in on the NFL in the regular season with Fanduel. As always, we bring you a stud and a bargain at each position. Good luck everyone!

QB - Tony Romo  $8,400  vs. Washington
Romo, who traditionally struggles in December, has but together a heck of a run as of late. The Redskins have given up 8th-most points to QBs in the last 5 weeks and Romo torched them for 441yards and 3TD's just a few weeks ago.The winner of this one is going to the playoffs while the loser stays home. Expect another big game for Romo in this must win match-up.
QB - Chad Henne  $6,400  vs. Tennessee
One thing is for sure, Henne is not afraid to sling it around. I'm sure many of you are wondering why a QB that just lost his #1 receiver (Cecil Shorts) would be listed as someone to target. Those of you with the questions clearly did not see Henne and the Jaguars in the 1st half against New England last weekend. Henne has plenty of weapons in Blackmon and breakout candidate Jordan Shipley. He is going up against a horrible defense in Tennessee and has the potential to win a game and make a case for a starting job somewhere next season. Expect big things from Henne this week.

RB - Adrian Peterson  $9,300  vs. Green Bay
Has a chance to break Eric Dickerson's record with a big game. Put up 210 and a TD against Green Bay a couple weeks ago. He will be motivated and going up against a defense he knows how to carve up. This one could be close. If you are going to roll the dice on a high price guy, Peterson is it this week.
RB - Knowshon Moreno  $6,600  vs. Kansas City
Moreno continues to be undervalued. He carried the ball 24 times for 111yards against them a few weeks ago. With the game in Denver and a chance to lock up home field on the line expect the Broncos to jump out to an early lead and pound the ball with Moreno the rest of the way.

WR - Dez Bryant  $7,600  vs. Washington
Has put up big numbers despite a broken ring finger. With Romo expected to have a big game and Bryant emerging as the #1 target it is only logical that this should be another big week for him.
WR - Randy Moss  $4,900  vs. Arizona
Mario Manningham is out for the season with a torn ACL. Vernon Davis is banged up as well. The 49ers are going to need a secondary threat behind Crabtree and need to find him before the playoffs start. This is where Moss comes in. He has not played nearly as big a role as many expected going into the season but still has the ability to go up and get balls that few others can. He caught a big touchdown against his former team in New England. That could be just the jump start he needs. Expect the 49ers and Kaepernick to try to develop something with him early. If it works he could be in for a big game.

TE - Jason Witten  $6,000  vs. Washington
For the same reasons we like Romo and Bryant we like Witten this week. It is a must have game and Witten is Romo's red-zone security blanket. Play him with confidence.
TE - Jermichael Finley  $5,200  vs. Minnesota 
Finley is finally starting to regain his form with 50+ yards receiving in each of his last four games. He had 6 catches for 60 yards against Minnesota earlier in the year. If he can get a couple red-zone targets this week he could be a great value steal.

K - Nate Kaeding  $5,000  vs. New England
Kaeding took over last week for the injured Dan Carpenter. Tannehill and the Dolphins offense has been hot lately and should be able to put up enough points to keep things interesting against New England. Pretty good play from the 5,000 group this week.

D - Denver Broncos  $5,600  vs.  Kansas City
As we mentioned last week, if you look at the teams winning the large leagues they usually have one thing in common, huge points from their defense. Last week Seattle put up 40. This week it could be Denver's turn. They will take the lead early and force KC to go to the air if they want to catch up.  If you are desperate for a value play look at Jacksonville. 


See last week pick's here:  Week 16 NFL Fanduel Picks


Jets QB Disaster Continues

Jets QB Disaster Continues

The nightmare continues in New York as coach Rex Ryan today announced that there will be a QB change again for Sunday's game against the Buffalo Bills. With last week's starter Greg McElroy out with an apparent concussion, Ryan has turned the reins back over to Mark Sanchez for the final game of the regular season.

A perturbed Rex Ryan addressed the media at Jets practice Thursday to make the announcement saying he was "stunned" when he learned of the news today that McElroy had suffered a concussion. He had not alerted the training staff until headaches forced him out of a team workout Thursday morning.

"I was stunned by it," Ryan said. "I admire his courage and everything else, but you have to be truthful."

After getting sacked a whopping 11 times last weekend, those outside the organization seem a bit less stunned. Nonetheless, the quarterback carousel continues and Sanchez gets an opportunity to end the Jets disappointing season on a positive note.

The continued story in all of this is Tim Tebow and Ryan's stubbornness to give the back-up QB an opportunity to start. Rumors swirled last week when a story came out saying Tebow asked out of the wildcat offensive after being passed over in favor of McElroy. Tebow himself has come out and discredited the story but openly admits his frustration and desire to start.

At this point it is surprising that they have not at least given Tebow a chance. The season is over, the Jets are not playoff bound and there is no young up and comer to take a look at now. It seems that from the beginning Ryan has been dead set against deploying Tebow as a major part of the offense. The ship is going down and Ryan may be going down with it.

Pro Bowl Rosters Announced

 
The ballots are in! Lets take a look at the players headed to Hawaii for the Pro Bowl:


AFC TEAM-BY-TEAM

Baltimore (6)
Jacoby Jones, kick returner
Vonta Leach, fullback*
Haloti Ngata, interior lineman
Ed Reed, free safety*
Ray Rice, running back
Marshal Yanda, guard*

Cincinnati (2)
Geno Atkins, interior lineman*
A.J. Green, wide receiver*

Cleveland (2)
Phil Dawson, placekicker
Joe Thomas, offensive tackle*

Denver (5)
Champ Bailey, cornerback*
Ryan Clady, tackle
Elvis Dumervil, defensive end
Peyton Manning, quarterback*
Von Miller, outside linebacker*

Houston (8)
Duane Brown, tackle*
Arian Foster, running back*
Andre Johnson, wide receiver
Johnathan Joseph, cornerback*
Chris Myers, center
Matt Schaub, quarterback
Wade Smith, guard
J.J. Watt, defensive end*

Indianapolis (2)
Robert Mathis, outside linebacker
Reggie Wayne, wide receiver

Kansas City (5)
Eric Berry, strong safety*
Jamaal Charles, running back
Dustin Colquitt, punter
Tamba Hali, outside linebacker*
Derrick Johnson, inside/middle linebacker

Miami (1)
Cameron Wake, defensive end*

New England (7)
Tom Brady, quarterback
Rob Gronkowski, tight end*
Logan Mankins, guard*
Jerod Mayo, inside/middle linebacker*
Matthew Slater, special-teamer
Wes Welker, wide receiver
Vince Wilfork, interior lineman*

N.Y. Jets (2)
Antonio Cromartie, cornerback
LaRon Landry, strong safety

Pittsburgh (2)
Heath Miller, tight end
Maurkice Pouncey, center*




NFC TEAM-BY-TEAM

Arizona (1)
Patrick Peterson, cornerback

Atlanta (3)
Tony Gonzalez, tight end*
Julio Jones, wide receiver
Matt Ryan, quarterback

Chicago (5)
Tim Jennings, cornerback*
Brandon Marshall, wide receiver*
Henry Melton, interior lineman*
Julius Peppers, defensive end*
Charles Tillman, cornerback*

Dallas (2)
DeMarcus Ware, outside linebacker*
Jason Witten, tight end

Detroit (1)
Calvin Johnson, wide receiver*

Green Bay (3)
Clay Matthews, outside linebacker
Aaron Rodgers, quarterback*
Jeff Saturday, center

Minnesota (4)
Jared Allen, defensive end
Jerome Felton, fullback*
Adrian Peterson, running back*
Blair Walsh, placekicker

New Orleans (2)
Jahri Evans, guard*
Thomas Morstead, punter

N.Y. Giants (3)
Victor Cruz, wide receiver
Jason Pierre-Paul, defensive end*
Chris Snee, guard

San Francisco (9)
NaVorro Bowman, inside/middle linebacker
Dashon Goldson, free safety*
Frank Gore, running back
Mike Iupati, guard*
Aldon Smith, outside linebacker*
Justin Smith, interior lineman*
Joe Staley, tackle*
Donte Whitner, strong safety*
Patrick Willis, inside/middle linebacker*

Seattle (5)
Marshawn Lynch, running back
Russell Okung, tackle*
Earl Thomas, free safety
Max Unger, center*
Leon Washington, kick returner

Tampa Bay (1)
Gerald McCoy, interior lineman

Washington (3)
Lorenzo Alexander, special-teamer
Robert Griffin III, quarterback
Trent Williams, tackle

Titans, Panthers, Chargers, Eagles, Rams, Raiders all without players in the game.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

NCAA Wednesday Night Cash-In


We are entering the fun stretch of college football bowl season with games on 12 of the next 13 nights leading up to the National Championship game. 

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl
Western Kentucky -6.5 vs. Central Michigan O/U 56.5
Central Michigan averages 29.3 points per game while allowing 33.3 points per game. Western Kentucky averages 28.8/25.6. WKU RB Antonio Andrews  needs 274 yards to break Barry Sanders' record of 3,250 all-purpose yards in a season. Western Kentucky is 21-7 against the spread in their last 28 games. Central Michigan is 8-24 ATS in last 32. Central Michigan will be without top receiver Titus Davis who has been suspended for the bowl game. They will have to look elsewhere to replace 869yds and 8 TD's. Based on all that information we will make two picks for this one...
PICK WESTERN KENTUCKY -6.5, UNDER 56.5
Update 12/27: 1 WIN, 1 LOSS

Fantasy Football Week 17 Waiver Wire Wonders

If you are still alive in Fantasy Football this week, congratulations! You have undoubtedly made some screwed moves over the course of the season to put yourself in this position. With a ton of injuries and elite teams in position to rest a few guys, lets take a look at the players you can grab to put you over the top and deliver fantasy glory! Good luck everyone!

QB Michael Vick PHI vs. NYG
With rookie Nick Foles out with a broken hand Vick will get an unexpected but incredibly opportunistic start. Vick is set to be a hot commodity on the free agent market this off-season and has a great chance to audition for his new teams on Sunday. The Eagles have a chance to play spoilers this week as they can eliminate the Giants from the playoff picture. Expect a strong performance from Vick in this one.

RB Rashard Mendenhall  PIT vs. CLE
Returned from suspension last week and was more effective than current starter Jonnathan Dwyer. Going up against the Browns this week should offer plenty of opportunities for points for both backs. This will be the last chance Mendenhall has this season to make a case to be the starter going into 2013. Expect him to take full advantage of it.

RB Ryan Grant  GB vs. MIN
Had a huge game last week with 20 carries for 84 yards and two touchdowns. While a 20+ point performance is unlikely again this week, with all the injuries the Packers have had at RB Grant has taken hold of the starting job going into the playoff push. If you are looking for a guy who is going to get 20+ carries this week Grant could be your man.

WR Randy Moss SF vs. ARI
Mario Manningham tore his ACL last week and is now out for the season. Expect the 49ers to target Moss a lot this week to both tune up and see what he can give you going into the playoffs. A bit of a stretch pick but could very likely find the end-zone this week.

WR Jordan Shipley JAX vs. TEN
Chad Henne and company continue to sling the ball around, and damn near pulled off the upset of the season last week against the Patriots. Henne's favorite target Cecil Shorts suffered a season ending injury last week opening the door for Shipley to step in and become fantasy relevant. Again, a bit of a stretch but if you are in need of a WR3 or flex option, Shipley could be a nice sleeper pick.

D Buffalo Bills  vs. NYJ
"When in doubt, start the team playing the Jets"  We have lived by this all season and it holds true once more.

See last week's picks: Week 16 Waiver Wire Wonders

Playoffs!? What Each Team Needs to do this Weekend

 
A look at the playoff picture as we head into week 17 of the NFL season. What does your team need to do to improve their playoff picture?

NFC
1. ATL (13-2, clinched South, home-field advantage)
2. GB (11-4, clinched North)
3. SF (10-4-1, clinched playoff spot, leads West)
4. WAS (9-6, leads East)
5. SEA (10-5, clinched playoff spot) 
6. MIN (9-6)
In the hunt:
7. CHI (9-6)
8. Dallas (8-7)
9. NYG (8-7)

NFC Scenarios
Green Bay: Can clinch No. 2 seed with win at Vikings; OR tie and San Francisco loss or tie; OR San Francisco loss and Seattle loss or tie.
San Francisco: Clinches NFC West with win or tie; OR Seattle loss or tie. Clinches No. 2 seed with win and Green Bay loss or tie; OR tie and Green Bay loss.
Seattle: Clinches NFC West with win and San Francisco loss. Clinches first-round bye with win and losses by San Francisco and Green Bay.
Washington: Clinches NFC East with win; clinches wild card with loss and losses by Minnesota and Chicago.
Minnesota: Clinches playoff spot with win; OR tie and Chicago loss or tie; OR Dallas loss or tie, NY Giants loss or tie and Chicago loss.
Chicago: Clinches playoff spot with win and Minnesota loss or tie; OR tie and Minnesota loss.
Dallas: Clinches NFC East with win.
NY Giants: Clinch playoff spot with win and losses by Minnesota, Chicago and Dallas loss or tie.

AFC
1. HOU (12-3, clinched South)
2. DEN (12-3, clinched West)
3. NE (11-4, clinched East)
4. BAL (10-5, clinched North)
5. IND (10-5, clinched wild card, locked in at #5)
6. CIN (9-6, clinched wild card, locked in at #6)

AFC Scenarios
Houston:  Can clinch No. 1 seed with win at Colts or tie; OR Denver loss.  Clinches home-field advantage with win; OR tie and Denver loss or tie; or losses by Denver and New England.
Denver: Can clinch No. 2 seed with win vs. Chiefs; can clinch No. 1 seed with win and Texans loss
New England: Can clinch No. 2 seed with win vs. Dolphins and Texans/Broncos loss; can clinch No. 1 seed with win and Texans, Broncos losses
Baltimore: Clinches No. 3 seed with win and New England loss.
Indianappolis: Clinched #5 seed
Cincinnati:  Clinched #6 seed

Read more here: http://www.star-telegram.com/2012/12/25/4507469/nfc-leaders.html#storylink=cpy

Fanduel Week 16: A Look Back

A look back at the week that was: Fanduel NFL Week 16
See our picks here:  Fanduel Week 16

QB Aaron Rodgers  $9,200  vs. Tenn  32.78
342 yds, 3 pass TD, 1 rush TD   Huge game for Rodgers. Both he and our other mention in his write-up Matt Ryan were the top guys for the week and either would have been a terrific choice. Those who went with Rodgers here were certainly in contention to come in the money for their leagues this week.
QB Jay Cutler  $6,600  vs. ARI   10.64
146yds 1TD  Big swing and a miss here. The Bears went with the ground attack. We were riding the Cutler-Marshall duo this week which did connect on the Bears only passing touchdown but 6 for 68 left much to be desired.

RB Alfred Morris  $7,400  vs.  PHI   17.3
108 total yds, 1TD  Another respectable week for Morris. He has been very consistent over the course of the season and one of those guys you can pencil in for 100 and a score every weekend.
RB Knowshon Moreno  $6,600  vs. CLE   15.2
127 total yds, 5 receptions  Failed to find the end-zone for the first time in a while but continues to be one of the best values in Fanduel each week. Trend should continue with another good match-up against KC next week.

WR Brandon Marshall  $8,200  vs. ARI   15.8
6/68/1  Already touched on his day in the Cutler review but obviously disappointing. Managed to break the double digit mark thanks to the TD but for the money there were far better options out there.
WR Stevie Johnson  $6,400  vs.  MIA  4.4
4/44  Rough day for Johnson and the Bills. Several uncharacteristic drops and a quarterback that had a hard time getting a second to the think in the pocket spells disaster for those who went this way.

TE Heath Miller  $6,100  vs.  CIN  6
3/45  A season ending ACL tear in the 4th quarter was a big blow to the Steelers as they attempted to keep their slim playoff hopes alive. He certainly would have been a big target for them down the stretch. Disappointing game for Miller owners.
TE Benjamin Watson  $4,900  vs.  DEN   6.2
3/47  Going against the league's worst TE defense it was a good match-up on paper. He was still able to put up more points than the higher priced pick in Miller but still nothing to write home about.

K Phil Dawson  $5,000  vs.  DEN   8
Another ho-hum pick here. Cleveland struggled to get things going offensively and as a result Dawson didn't get many good looks.

DEF  New England  $5,600  vs.  JAX    8
The surprise of the week had to be Jacksonville this week. They went toe to toe and probably should have beat a Patriots team that was sloppy on both sides on the balls and just managed to pull this on off. 3 INT's helped the cause but overall a big disappointment.

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