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Saturday, December 15, 2012

Sunday NFL Cash-IN: Week 15

 

Ah, the weekend is finally here. After a long week at work it is time to make a little money the fun way. Here is a look at the games that we like for week 15. Good luck everyone!

Last week: 3-1
This week: 3-2

Thursday:
Cincinnati (-4) at Philadelphia   Pick: Cincinnati   WIN  

Sunday:
Green Bay (-2.5) at Chicago   WIN

The last time these two teams played Jake Cutler and Brandon Marshall called out the Packers secondary saying they were looking forward to the easy match-up. Big mistake. Charles Woodson & CO. took the bulliten board material and shoved it back in Cutler's face to the tune of 4 INT's and a 23-10 victory.  You would think the Bears had learned, right? Clearly not, as the two took to the media early in the week once again, Marshall going so far as to say that he "hates the Packers." What to expect? Well, it looks like there will be no Woodson this week but with Clay Matthews making his return from injury and Aaron Rodgers as motivated as ever expect much of the same.  Interesting statistic: the Packers are 9-1 ATS vs. division opponents over the past two seasons.
Pick:  GREEN BAY

Denver (-2.5) at Baltimore  WIN

The Broncos are winners of 8 in a row and heading to Baltimore with home-field implications on the line.  Over those eight games the Broncos are 6-1-1 ATS. The Ravens are coming off back to back losses to Pittsburgh (without Ben Roethlisberger) and last week to Washington with Kirk Cousins leading the comeback charge late.  Two teams headed in opposite directions. We expect that trend to continue this week.
Pick:  DENVER 


Indianapolis (+10) at HoustoLOSS

Houston is coming off one of the most embarrassing losses in franchise history; a 42-14 stinker in what Andre Johnson called "the biggest game in franchise history" at New England. One school of thought would  say they come back motivated against another potential playoff opponent and make a statement. Nice thought, but not so fast. The Texans have shown their vulnerabilities on pass defense, particularly in the secondary. Andrew Luck has weapons everywhere on the outside to take advantage of those flaws. The Texans may win the game outright but ten points is a huge number against a 9-4 division opponent.
Pick: INDIANAPOLIS  


Detroit (-6.5) at ArizonLOSS 
Anyone see what Seattle did to Arizona last week? Yup, thought so. The Cardinals are a bad football team. Ryan Lindley is not an NFL quarterback, John Skelton barely qualifies as a back-up. The Lions are going to score points, the Cardinals will not. Maybe not the 50+ that Seattle put up last week but anything short of a double digit victory would be a shocker.
 Pick:  DETROIT

Thursday, December 13, 2012

NFL Thursday Cash-In



Cincinnati (-4) at Philadelphia  8:20pm ET  NFL Network
Two teams going in complete opposite directions.  Cincinnati has won four of their last five games going 4-1 against the spread in that time.  Philly has lost six of their last eight games against the spread. The Bengals are 8-0 against the spread vs. Philly since 1982.  The Eagles are 1-6 straight up in their past seven games as a home underdog. If those statistics aren't enough for you, the Eagles one healthy offensive star Bryce Brown went from being "wonder child" to "just another Eagle" last week. No McCoy, no Vick, no win.
TAKE CINCINNATI

Week 15 NFL Fanduel Plays of the Week


A look at the best match-ups and bargains for week 15 NFL Fanduel. Per usual the match-up player will be listed first, followed by the bargain.



QB - Aaron Rodgers $8,900  vs. Chicago
When will Brandon Marshall and Jay Cutler learn. Once again, they have started to run their mouths going into the game. Once again, Aaron Rodgers is listening but not responding...that is until Sunday. 
QB - Eli Manning  $7,700  vs. Atlanta
Again this week Manning is vastly under priced. Expect a bit of a shootout here. Both Manning and Ryan should put up some big numbers. Manning cost about 1000 less. Play with confidence. 

RB - Marshawn Lynch  $7,700  vs. Buffalo
Going up against his former team on the road in Buffalo. The weather is going to be iffy. The ground games are going to be going at full force on both sides. Expect Lynch to run with something to prove with a big game in a needed win. 
RB - Knowshown Moreno  $6,200  vs. Baltimore
Moreno has grabbed he starting job in Denver and run with it (no pun intended). He has 20 plus carries in each of the last 3 games. With clock control at a premium in a playoff type match-up expect more of the same: a lot of carries and a good chance of finding the end zone.

WR - Victor Cruz  $7,300  vs. Atlanta
His quarterback made the list as the bargain this week. Cruz is coming off consecutive 100+ yard games and leads the Giants with 9 touchdowns this season. He will be a major target in this shootout match-up. 
WR - Josh Gordon  $5,900  vs. Washington
Has been a major unexpected performer in recent weeks to the tune of 14 receptions for 202 yards. The Browns are winners of three games in a row. If they want to make it four Gordon will have to be a big part of it.

TE - Martellus Bennett $5,500  vs. Atlanta
Another Giant makes the list. Bennett has caught touchdowns in each of the last two weeks. With Manning and co. slated to have a big game expect Bennett to be a part of it, particually in the red-zone.
TE - Dennis Pitta  $5,100  vs.  Denver
Pitta has drawn more attention lately catching 5 passing for 46yards and a touchdown. Denver has given up the 3rd most points to tight ends this season. At just 5,100 has a chance to be a bargain steal this week.

K - Nick Folk $5,000  vs. Tennessee
Best of the 5,000 plays this week. The Jets should score some points but they are far from an offensive juggernaut. Folk should have the potential for several field goal tries this week.

DEF - Detroit  $5,000  vs. Arizona
They are playing Arizona...need we say more.

Click for last week's picks

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Yankees Sign Kevin Youkilis

 

Wait, what? That sound you hear is Boston Red Sox fans across the country vomiting to the news that Kevin Youkilis has signed a 1 year $12million deal with the New York Yankees.

The man most famous for his YOUUUUUUKKKKK chats that lit up every stadium he played in while with the Red Sox will likely be hearing a slightly altered version of that when he returns to Fenway Park in enemy pin-stripes in 2013.

As disgusting as this is for Red Sox fans, you really can't place the blame solely on Youkilis for this one. He got run out of town in ugly fashion with run-ins and public criticism from then coach Bobby Valentine. He lost his starting job following an injury to rookie Will Middlebrooks. He lost his friend and guy who always backed his veterans in Terry Francona. It all adds up.

Was he looking for revenge? Perhaps. More likely this was a case of a desperate team way over paying for the last solid 3B left in the free agent market. I can't imagine he had offers for much more than half that from other teams. There were rumors swirling that the Cleveland Indians had made a two year offer, but that was never confirmed or finalized and certainly wouldn't have been for nearly the same money.

With Alex Rodriguez out until at least June with hip surgery Youk will slip in nicely on the left side of the infield. When he returns his role remains to be seen. Perhaps a DH/1B platoon with Mark Teixeria at 1B.

Regardless of how much Red Sox fan hate this, the Yankees were without question the best immediate fit for Youkilis from both a career and financial standpoint. It will be interesting to see how he gels with his new teammates.

NFL Week 15 Fantasy Waiver Wire Wonders

 

With Fantasy playoffs underway and major players going down for injury it is very important that you take a look at a couple of theses guys going into your Week 15 match-up!

QB - Nick Foles PHI
Foles had a monster breakout week in Week 14 throwing for 381 yards and 2 TD. While he is unlikely to match those numbers again this week it is clear that Andy Reid to taking the training wheels off Foley a bit and letting him throw the ball around. If you are an RGIII or Michael Vick owner Foles would be a good pick-up for a playoff fill-in.
QB - Brandon Weeden CLE
The Browns are winners of three in a row and have a legitimate chance at a 4th this week against Washington, particularly if RGIII doesn't play. He has shown your typically rookie growing pains over the course of the season but is beginning to hit his stride coming down the stretch. It is a stretch to imagine but if Cleveland were to run the table they are a playoff team. For that to happen Weeden will have to be a major contributor.
RB - David Wilson NYG
Bradshaw is likely to be a game-time decision. If he doesn't play the explosive Wilson becomes the feature back in a big time match-up vs Atlanta. Wilson showed what he is capable of last week both on the ground and on returns. If he gets some space no one is catching him. Keep an eye on Bradshaw's status late in the week. If he doesn't play, Wilson is a must start. 
RB - Brian Powell NYJ
Powell is splitting carries with Shonn Greene but has put up 70+ yards and a touchdown in consecutive weeks. Facing the league's 23rd rated rush defense this week expect the Jets to keep the ball on the ground leading to the potential for big games from either or both backs.
WR - Danario Alexander SD
If Alexander is still available in your league you would be crazy not to pick him up. He has developed into the #1 man in San Diego as seen last week with a pair of touchdowns. Surprisingly, Alexander is only owned in about 30% of fantasy leagues. Go get him!
WR  - Justin Blackmon JAX
Cecil Shorts is likely out next week against Miami. Chad Henne going up against his former team will have a little chip on his shoulder and something to prove. With Blackmon as the new #1 man expect him to be targeted early and often.  *EDITOR'S NOTE - Shorts will play this week 12/16*
TE  - Dennis Pitta BAL
Pitta is starting to heat up again finding the end-zone last weekend against the Redskins. Baltimore draws a Denver team who has been vulnerable against TE's this season. The Ravens are fighting for home field in the playoffs. A win against the Broncos would go a long way towards accomplishing that goal. Expect Pitta to draw some more red-zone targets this weekend.

A look back at Week 14 NFL Fanduel

 

As we do every-week, it is time to take a look back at our Fanduel top picks and bargains from Week 14
You can see our picks here: Week 14 NFL Fanduel Plays of the Week

QB - Josh Freeman  $7,900   vs. PHI     16.86
186 yards and two touchdowns. Not great, not terrible. Hopefully you went with our cheaper option below.
QB - Nick Foles  $5,500  vs. TB              31.94
Nick Foles led all NFL QB's in passing yards this week with 381 and added on a pair of touchdowns. Heck of a play for those who rolled the dice on the low price option this week.

WR - Calvin Johnson $8,800  vs. GB     16.8
Had 10 catches for 118 yards but failed to find the end-zone. If you are gonna pony up this kind of financial commitment that guy has to cash in down in the red zone.
WR - Tory Smith  $5,600  vs. WAS           2.6
Managed just 1 catch for 21 yards. A far cry from the game we were expecting.

RB - Trent Richardson  $8,200  vs. KC   17.6
This number could have been significantly better if not for a phantom penalty call the negated what would have been his second TD of the day in the 4th quarter. Finishing with 42 yards and a touchdown isn't quite the production we expected.
RB - Jonathan Dwyer $5,900   vs. SD      6.5
Steelers were playing from behind for much of the game which meant a predominantly air attach. Not good news for those who players Dwyer.

TE - Kyle Rudolph $6,000   vs. CHI         0.0
No catches for Rudolph
TE - Brandon Pettigrew $5,000  vs. GB   0.0
No catches for Pettigrew

K - Nick Novak $5,000  vs. PIT                 12.0
 Respectable day for Novak with a pair of field goals and 4 extra points. A pretty good play this week.

DEF - Pittsburgh $5,100  vs. SD              0.0
Big fat goose egg for the Steelers, ouch!


Minus Foles it was a rough week picks wise. Stay tuned later in the week as we attempt to redeem ourselves for week 15.

Week 14 Cash-In: A look Back

 
A look back at our picks for Week 14.  See the actual picks here: Week 14 NFL Cash-In 

Denver -10 vs. Oakland  WIN
The Thursday night game was over before it started as the Broncos, save for a 4th quarter garbage touchdown, were in control throughout and cruised to a 26-13 victory.
Cleveland vs. Kansas City UNDER 38  WIN
The streak continues! This one was an unexpected nail bitter for gamblers. When Jamal Charles took the first offensive play of the game 80 yards to the house we got a little concerned. When the Browns went off for 30 unanswered points, we got a little concerned. Fortunately the gambling gods smiled down on us a number of times including a missed chip shot from Ryan Succup and a phantom penalty call that negated a Trent Richardson 4th quarter touchdown. We'll take 'em any way we can get'em, even if it is a nerve wracking 1 point cover.
Miami +10 at San Francisco  LOSS
The only loss of the weekend. This game was a bit of a gambling nightmare as things looked good until a 50yard QB scramble from Colin Kaepernick very late in the 4th quarter. Unfortunately in gambling those things occasionally happen.
New England vs. Houston OVER 51  WIN
The Patriots almost got to this number on their own in what was one of the most shocking outcomes of the weekend. Tom Brady and Co. are clearly finding their stride once again December to the tune of 42-14. That is 7 games in a row now for New England who has energed as the odds on Super Bowl favorite at this point. Good play, good win.

Week Record: 3-1
Season win%: .555

Sunday, December 9, 2012

Week 14 Fantasy Football Start 'em or Sit 'em

A list of players who are questionable for week 14 either by injury or competition:

Start
Ben Roethlisberger
DeAngelo Williams
Greg Jennings
Chris Givens
Montell Owens
Hakeem Nicks
Stevie Johnson
Sidney Rice

Sit
Larry Fitzgerald
Danny Amendola
Cecil Shorts
Mikel Leshoure
Dustin Keller
LeSean McCoy


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